Saturday Night Special: South Carolina and Temple to Pierce Opponents

The Temple Owls (22-5, 11-2 A10) hope to maintain their mastery over Saint Joseph’s (18-11, 8-6 A10) with an eleventh victory in a row over the Hawks. After a 52-49 home loss to Richmond in their last game, the St. Joe’s look in no position to break the streak against an Owls squad who have won 11 straight and not lost in Hagan Arena since 2001.

Pick: Temple -2.5

The South Carolina Gamecocks (10-17, 2-11 SEC) look to spur conference foes the Tennessee Volunteers (15-13, 7-6 SEC) in Columbia on Saturday night. Defense will be key for Darrin Horn’s squad. Under his four-year tenure, the Gamecocks are 56-17 when holding their opponents under 45% shooting from the field. The Volunteers shoot a paltry 39.1% on the road this season.

Pick: South Carolina +3

Added selections:

Depaul, -1.5 

Tulane, +3

Bowling Green, -1

East Carolina, -1.5

Syracuse, -4.5
San Francisco, +4

Oklahoma to Snap Six-Game Stinker in the Bedlam Series

The Oklahoma Sooners (13-3, 3-11 Big 12) hope to snap a six-game skid against Bedlam Series opponents Oklahoma State Cowboys (13-14, 6-8 Big 12) at home in the Lloyd Noble center on Wednesday.The Sooners are 12-3 against the Cowboys in their last 15 meetings in Norman, winning seven straight and nine of the last 10.

Head coach Lon Kruger will need his men to pick up their game on both sides of the ball to break the slump, and a poor traveling Cowboys squad (1-6 on the road in Big 12 play) is the ideal candidate to do so. Defense will be key for Oklahoma. In their three conference wins, the Sooners have held opponents to .379 field goal shooting while giving away an ugly .496 from the field in Big 12 losses. Against Oklahoma St. earlier in the year, Kruger’s team held the Cowboys to a .386 field-goal percentage, but shot a season-low .324 from the field to slouch to a 72-65 defeat.

Junior guard Steven Pledger is the keystone on offense for a Sooner’s victory. In Oklahoma’s wins this year, Pledger averages 20.8 points per game and shoots a scorching.578 from the field. The 6-4 guard has had his difficulties on the road of late, posting season low numbers in total points against Iowa State (7) and Texas Tech (4), but is averaging 17.6 in his last five starts in Norman. Together with his junior teammates, Romero Osby and Andrew Fitzgerald, the trio accounts for 65 percent of the Sooner’s scoring. The breakout of sophomore guard, Cameron Clark, in the last two games, who scored 13 and 16 respectively against the Longhorns and Cyclones, may take some pressure off Pledger and classmates. The Cowboys should find themselves struggling to accommodate the myriad of scoring threats on the defensive side of the ball.

Pick: Oklahoma -3.5

NC State Seek Victory Over Seminoles

The NC State Wolfpack (18-8, 7-4 ACC) face a must-win game today in Raleigh against the Florida State Seminoles (18-7, 9-2 ACC), as they currently sit on the bubble for an invitation to the NCAA tournament with a tenuous NCAA RPI strength of schedule ranking of 51st. Coming off a heartbreaking game in Durham against Duke, where Mark Gottfried’s team blew a twenty-point plus lead in the second half, the Wolfpack aim to put the tough loss behind them and avenge a 72-62 defeat versus the Seminoles last year in the RBC Center.

First-year head coach, Gottfried, is improving NC State in nearly all aspects of the game as he strives to escort his team to the NCAA tournament in what will be his eighteenth appearance. For one, he is turning the RBC center into a mini-fortress, or should we say “den.” The Wolfpack have 12 home wins this season, the most since 2008-2009, and have only lost four. The five starters from last year's team have improved in nearly every statistical category under Gottfried's guidance too. Leading scorer, junior forward Scott Wood, for example, has increased his points per game from last year by +3.5, minutes by +0.7, and field-goal percentage by a +.022 margin. Most impressively, the Wolfpack rank second in the ACC in assist-to-turnover ratio (1.3), a statistic they will need to maintain against a Seminole defense that is second in the conference for forcing turnovers. 

A troubling trend for Wolfpack backers is their 0-4 record versus ranked opponents this season--Florida State enter Raleigh the AP’s #20. On a more positive note, NC State is 14-0 when they have the same or more free throw attempts than their opponent, and 14-1 when they shoot 70% or better. The Seminole’s aggressive defense have them in the upper tier of personal fouls per game, a trend which should invite plenty of Wolfpack trips to the line. In away games, the Seminoles commit 30.4% personal fouls per possession, well above the Division I average of 26.6%

This is the fifth time time this season NC State has played in two games with a one-day turnaround, boasting a record of 5-3 in those contests. CBB Mogul likes the Wolfpack to add win number six. 

Play: NC State ML (-105)

Pitt to KO West Virginia in the Basketball Backyard Brawl

The 184th meeting of the Basketball Backyard Brawl sees Pitt (15-11, 4-9 Big East) host West Virginia (16-10, 6-7 Big East) at home on Thursday night. CBB Mogul is backing the Panthers to win in what will hardly be a scuffle.

These are two teams heading in opposite directions. With the return of point guard Tray Woodall from a groin injury, Jamie Dixon’s team has won four of their last six, including a 72-66 win in West Virgina against Bob Huggins's men. The Mountaineers, on the other hand, have lost five of their last six, and only squeaked by with a 87-84 victory in overtime against the Big East’s bottom dwellers, Providence.

 

CBB Mogul does not anticipate Huggins to turn his school's fortunes around tonight. Both teams are built very similarly, tending to dominate play on the glass while struggling with inefficiency from behind the arc. The game will be won from inside-the-perimeter shooting and defense. In Pitt’s last three games at home, they are averaging a 48% field goal average from the floor on offense, while defensively holding teams to 40% during the same time span. The numbers are reversed for West Virginia in their last three on the road, averaging 40% from the field on offense and giving away 48% on defense. Look for Pitt to win handily if they maintain such high-percentage shooting.

Pitt is 7-1 in games versus the Mountaineers in Petersen Events Center and have won 10 of their last 11 in the Steel City overall against their rivals.

Play: Pitt -3


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Georgia Tech Look To Solve Winston-Salem Woes

The Georgia Tech Yellow Jackets (9-15, 2-8 ACC) play the first of two consecutive road games in Winston-Salem on Wednesday versus the Wake Forest Demon Deacons (11-14, 2-9 ACC) in what is a battle between the ACC's last place teams. The Lawrence Joel Veterans Memorial Coliseum (LJVMC) has not been welcoming to the Ramblin Wreck throughout its history, as Tech only boasts a 6-16 record in the building. Two of those wins, however, have come in the Yellow Jackets' last four visits, and they have taken six of the last eight meetings between the schools. CBB Mogul trusts Georgia Tech head coach Brian Gregory can lead them to victory tonight.

Since Paul Hewitt's departure, Gregory has assumed a "back-to-basics" approach with the Yellow Jackets, emphasizing sound defense, offensive efficiency, and the winning of rebounds. Despite the Demon Deacon's height advantage--they boast two seven footers--they are woeful on the boards, ranking eleventh in offensive rebound efficiency (OR%) in the conference. Meanwhile, Tech ranks fifth in OR% in the ACC and will have the advantage in capitalizing on second-chance points as a result. Despite a losing record on the road, the Yellow Jackets have only been outscored collectively by less than one point, and is out shooting opponents 44.0-39.7 percent from the floor.

Gregory's men have had a tough time scoring the last several games, though, averaging only 54.6 points in their last eight combined. Tech's shooting woes can be partially attributed to star player Glen Rice Jr.'s nagging toe injury, which looks to be fully healed. The 6-foot-5 junior wing leads the Yellow Jackets with 13.1 points and 6.6 rebounds a game this season. Look for him to guide the offense back on track.

Both teams are struggling badly. Wake Forest has lost eight of its last nine, and Tech have dropped seven of their past eight. The more athletic Yellow Jackets are replenished, though, coming off a six-day rest since their lost to N.C State at home last Thursday. Look for the much-needed "vacation" to carry Tech on an explosive second-half run which will allow them take the win and improve their record at LJVMC.

Pick: Georgia Tech ML (-105)

Kansas State to Shock Hoops Nation in the Sunflower Showdown

The Kansas State Wildcats (17-7, 6-6 Big 12) welcome cross-state rival Kansas (20-5, 10-2 Big 12) to Bramlage Coliseum on Monday night in what should be a thrilling contest broadcast to a national television audience on ESPN. The fiery Frank Martin will have his troops focused to beat the ninth ranked Jayhawks after blowing a double-digit lead on Saturday to Texas in Austin.

Sitting in a tie for fifth place with the Longhorns in the conference standings, the Wildcats will look to finish out their remaining home games undefeated, as they seek a first-round bye in the Phillips 66 Big 12 Championship. Martin is an impressive 13-1 at home in February dating back the last four years, and is 2-2 lifetime in Manhattan versus the Jayhawks.

These two teams boast the top defenses in the Big 12 and we anticipate a very physical contest. The Wildcats’ depth will be an asset late in a bruising game. Martin has used six different starting line-ups this year and regularly rotates 11 players a game. Leading the conference in rebounds (38.4), turnovers forced (16.8), steals (6.5), and blocks (4.2) per game, Kansas State will look to their defense to tame the more athletic Jayhawks. Both teams play at a slightly above-average tempo, but if the Wildcats can scratch, claw, and hassle Kansas relentlessly throughout the contest they may be able to hold the high-flying Jayhawks to 65 points or less, a benchmark where Martin’s men are 13-1 this season.

Wager: Although we’re tempted to play the morning-line price on this game, CBB Mogul likes to take what Vegas and the public giveth. The spread opened at +2.5 for the Wildcats and has climbed to +3.5. Although we are satisfied with these points, we anticipate this figure to grow even more and will pounce on +4.5 or better. 

Pick: Kansas State +4.5

As always, good luck!

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CBB Mogul: Saturday's Selections

The Big East is the stage for this weekend’s CBB Mogul spotlight play. Although conference followers will have their sights set on the Louisville at West Virginia match up, we are focusing our attention on backing Providence College (13-12, 2-10 BE) to beat the University of South Florida (14-10, 7-4 BE) at home in the Dunkin’ Donuts Center. 

USF are a big team, led by 6-10 senior forward Augustus Gilchrist, who is also the team’s leading scorer (10.9 ppg) and ranked second in rebounds (5.1 rpg). They will have a difficult time covering the Friar’s speedy back-court trio of Vincent Council, Bryce Cotton, and Gerard Coleman. Providence are deadly behind the arch, leading the Big East in three-point shooting accuracy at 39.5%. Look for this to be the difference maker in the game, as the Bulls’ big men struggle to defend the perimeter. USF, in fact, is last in the conference at defending the three-point shot giving away a 38.2% success rate to opposing teams.

Despite winning only one of their last four games, the Friars are 4-0 ATS overall and are showing signs improvement as the season winds down. The home team has won the last four meetings between the two teams by an average spread of -5. We’ll take Providence, -2.

CBB Mogul is also wagering on Missouri to cover -6 (medium play) and Kentucky -5 (small). The latter game is falling in price and patient bettors may be able to pick up the Wildcats at -4.5 or better.

Good Luck!

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Wednesday's Wagers

Rick Majerus will not need the luck of the Billiken to see his Saint Louis (18-5, 6-3 A-10) squad handle Saint Joseph's (15-9, 5-4 A-10) in Philadelphia on Wednesday. CBB Mogul foresees the former John Wooden Award winner’s stingy defensive team, which ranks 13th nationally in Ken Pomeroy’s efficiency percentage (87.7) and first in the A-10, silencing a very good Hawks offense. 

The Billikens rank eighth in the country in scoring defense, holding opponents to a measly 56.9 points on average per game. As a bonus, Majerus’s men have improved their offensive production from last year, averaging a 46.3% field-goal average and shooting over 50% in eight games already this season--a feat they managed only six times the previous one.

St. Joseph’s have won three of their last four and will give their opponents a stingy test, but St. Louis’s ability to take care of the ball and create steals will push them to a solid road victory. We like the line offered at -2.5 and will pounce on the play before the public pushes it to a much uglier -3.5 or higher. Should be a close game and an entertaining one to watch.

Other plays we like today include:

Southern Miss (20-3, 7-1 C-USA) over UAB (9-13, 4-5 C-USA), -2.5
The Golden Eagles soar into Birmingham brimming with confidence after defeating Memphis 75-72 last Wednesday, snapping an 18-game losing streak to the Tigers. Expect the game to be close at the end, as 10 of the last 13 contests have been decided by eight points or less. Southern Miss’s accuracy from the free throw line will see out the game in the final minutes and cover the spread, which we anticipate will delve into a foul fest in the final two minutes. 

Best of luck!

Early Futures Betting Value for March Madness

With the NCAA Men’s Division I Basketball Championship roughly one month away, CBB Mogul sat down after the weekend and perused the current future odds for our next national champion. Hoping to ferret out a winner and cash in on a lucrative price of one of the most heavily wagered events outside of last night’s Super Bowl, we critically evaluated two of our favorite and most knowledgeable college basketball sources: Ken Pomeroy and the ESPN/USA Today Coaches Poll. We don’t usually promote playing future bets, as they are a very risky proposition that only a few lucky gamblers win, but some great hedge potential can be unearthed this late in the season.

Keeping our analysis relatively simple, CBB Mogul uncovered a couple of trends shared by each NCAA tournament champion going back to the 2002-2003 season. Firstly, the famed coaches poll ranked each winner in the top 10 by week 14, minus the Carmelo Anthony led Syracuse team in 2003. We’ll bypass explaining the significance here, but as the wise maxim reveals “teacher knows best.” Here are the results:

ESPN/USA Today Coaches Poll - Week #14
2011 - #9 Connecticut 469
2010 - #7 Duke 574
2009 - #3 North Carolina 711
2008 - #5 Kansas 668
2007 - #1 Florida 771
2006 - #6 Florida 612
2005 - #4 North Carolina 671
2004 - #8 Connecticut 532
2003 - #16 Syracuse 267

Using the above-mentioned ratings trend, we then analyzed Pomeroy’s advanced statistics calculating offensive and defensive efficiency, which measures the number of points scored for and allowed per 100 possession’s. End-of-year results show that the past national champions were ranked in the top 20 in both categories with a cumulative figure totaling less than 30.

Year	Team	ADJOE%-RANK	ADJDE%-RANK
2011	Connecticut 3	16	14
2010	Duke 1	1	4
2009	North Carolina 1	1	16
2008	Kansas 1	2	1
2007	Florida 1	1	12
2006	Florida 3	2	5
2005	North Carolina 1	1	5
2004	Connecticut 2	4	5
2003	Syracuse 3	11	19

As of February 6th, six teams currently meet the efficiency trend: Kentucky, Syracuse, Ohio State, North Carolina, Kansas, and Michigan State. All but the Spartans, who are currently ranked #12, are seeded in the top 10. Duke, Florida, and Missouri would each have to morph into the basketball equivalent of the 1970s "Steel Curtain" from this point of the season on in order to improve their defensive efficiency enough to win the title. Baylor, and the undefeated Murray State, make up the rest of the table. The Bears can slip into the trend’s margins with a slightly improved defensive effort, but lack--by a tiny fraction--the athleticism and talent to match the elite teams currently sitting atop the standings. Murray State, although may make a nice run through the field, will be a non factor for the championship.

Finding true value in the field is my prediction on why the term March Madness was coined. Pomeroy’s log5 analysis of last year’s tournament shows, in most cases, the favorite, even when placed in a favorable bracket, is at best 5:1 to win it all. What Vegas offers versus the real odds of a team progressing as champion is almost always an underlay. Once the public splashes the cash, a couple of overlays typically emerge, but rooting out a propitious futures bet now may be your only chance to win one over against the books. We haven’t shopped around for prices, but below is what 5Dimes is offering:

Kentucky	+400
North Carolina	+500
Ohio State	+600
Syracuse	+750
Duke	+900
Baylor	+1600
Kansas	+1750
Connecticut	+2000
Louisville	+2500
Missouri	+2500
Florida	+3500
Michigan State	+4000
Georgetown	+5000
Marquette	+5000
Texas	+6000
Florida State	+8000
UNLV	+8000
Wisconsin	+8000

We like Michigan St. sitting at 40:1. Reminiscent of last year’s national champions, Connecticut, the Coaches Poll left the Spartans out of the preseason top 25 by the slimmest of margins. They have a tough schedule to close out the season, having to face Ohio State home and away in the next month, but play three winnable road games against Purdue, Minnesota, and Indiana. Tom Izzo always demands respect come the Ides of March, and the Big Ten is proving to be the top conference this year. We anticipate the Spartans conjuring up an upset or two to close out the season, which should propel them up the rankings. Look for Izzo's team to emerge as a #3 seed come tournament time with odds of 25:1 to win it all. Investing now in Michigan State is a potentially lucrative endeavor. If operating through a betting exchange, we recommend selling on Duke, Missouri, and Florida. Best of luck.

West Virginia Mountaineers to Bankroll Super Bowl Bets!

Bob Huggins' West Virginia Mountaineers (15-8, 5-5 Big East) travel to the Dunkin' Donuts Center on Super Bowl Sunday to take on the current bottom dwellers of the Big East, Providence Friars (13-10, 2-8 Big East). The Mountaineers are returning to action after a much needed week-long break, in which Huggins' squad lost three games in row to conference foes, St. Johns, Syracuse, and Pittsburgh. Huggins believes it will take nine Big East victories to secure a NCAA bid in March, and with #15 Marquette, #25 Louisville, Pitt, and two against Notre Dame in the balance, coach is touting the Friar's contest as a must-win affair.

Providence, like their opponents before them, will be playing their third game in seven days and hope to carry momentum into the contest after handily beating Rutgers at home on Wednesday, 78-67. The Friars' weary legs, however, will only compound the difficulty of stopping the Mountaineers' front court from dominating play inside the paint. West Virginia is ranked 11th in the nation in offensive rebounding percentage (39.5%) and second in conference play (40.1%). Look for Huggins' leading scorer (20.9 PPG) and rebounder (11.5 RPG), senior Kevin Jones, to have a career day against the tired Providence big men.

Eric Mogul likes the Mountaineers to win by a respectable margin. Vegas opened the contest at -4.5 in favor of West Virginia and that spread is likely to grow by tip off. Jump on board early and bankroll some spending money for the Super Bowl. Best of luck.

Purdue to Steamroll No. 20 Indiana

Eric Mogul is backing the Purdue Boilermakers (15-7, 5-4 Big Ten) to prevail at Mackey Arena in what is always a passionate contest against interstate rival, the Indiana Hoosiers (17-6, 5-6 Big Ten). 

Saturday marks the 197th contest between these two storied teams with the West Lafayette representative leading the series record all time 112-84. The Boilermakers have taken five in a row versus the Hoosiers, having not lost to Indiana since February 19th 2008. Purdue looks to carry momentum into the clash after senior forward Robbie Hummel sank a game-winning jumper to seal a road victory against a scrappy Northwestern team on January 28th, 58-56. Eric Mogul is impressed with head coach Matt Painter’s conviction to ball security, which has the Boilermakers among the nation’s best in turnover margin (7th, 4.9 per game) and assist-to-turnover ratio (8th, 1.43 per game). 

In addition to taking care of the ball, look for Hummel and teammate guard, senior Lewis Jackson, to control the offensive end of the court for Purdue, as the tandem vie to join the program’s winningest players. Indiana is deadly from the 3-point line, but will have difficulty sinking shots in front of 14,000+ decked out in a sea of black and gold.

Betting Trends:
The Hoosiers are 4-13 ATS in their last 17 against Big Ten opponents. 


Play:
Purdue, -3 or better. Watch the line movement on this one closely.

The Best Five Weekend Games

5 No. 23 Michigan at No. 9 Michigan State » Warm up for Super Sunday with this Big Ten rivalry game. The Spartans used to dominate this series, winning 18 of 21, but the Wolverines have won the last three. Freshman Trey Burke was the catalyst three weeks ago as he hit eight of 11 shots, scored 20 points and assisted on the winning basket in a 60-59 verdict in Ann Arbor. (Sunday, 1 p.m., CBS)

4 No. 16 Virginia at No. 21 Florida State » With six straight wins, including conquests of Duke and North Carolina, Leonard Hamilton's Seminoles are in a three-way tie for first place in the ACC. Now they have a chance to beat the next best team in the league. Expect a grind-it-out affair between two of the top three field goal percentage defenses in the conference. (Saturday, 1 p.m., Ch. 20) 

3 No. 15 Marquette at Notre Dame » No other team in the brutal Big East has a winning streak as long as that of the Golden Eagles (seven games). But the Irish have specialized in upsets, knocking off four of the last five ranked teams they have played, including then-No. 1 Syracuse two weeks ago. Notre Dame will try to frustrate Marquette with its confounding "burn" offense. (Saturday, 1 p.m., CBS) 

2 No. 3 Ohio State at No. 19 Wisconsin » The last time the teams met in Madison, the Badgers rallied from 15 points down to hand the Buckeyes their first loss of 2010-11 after a 24-0 start. There's a great matchup at the point between Ohio State's Aaron Kraft and Wisconsin's Jordan Taylor, the catalyst in last year's upset with 27 points, seven assists and five 3-pointers. (Saturday, 2 p.m., ESPN)

1 No. 8 Kansas at No. 4 Missouri » It's the Border War basketball style and the last chapter for a while in Columbia. Missouri is fleeing for the SEC, and Kansas has said it will not schedule the Tigers. The last home loss for Missouri came in the regular-season finale to Kansas last March under former coach Mike Anderson. Now Frank Haith gets his shot at the Jayhawks. (Saturday, 9 p.m., ESPN)